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苹果相机切换手动模式Thread.joinThe Long-Term Debt Cycle The long-term debt cycle comes around approximately once every 50-75 years and happens because several short-term cycles add up to steadily higher debt and debt-service burdens, which the central banks try to more than neutralize by lowering interest rates and, when they can’t do that anymore, they try to do so by printing money and buying debt. Because most everyone wants to get markets and economies to go up and because the best way to do that is to lower interest rates and make credit readily available, there is a bias among policy makers to do what is stimulative until they can’t do that anymore. When the risk-free interest rate that they control hits 0% in a big debt crisis, central banks lowering interest rates doesn’t work. That drives them to print money and buy financial assets. That happened in 1929-33 and 2008-09. That causes financial asset prices and economic activity to pick up as they did in 1933-37 and 2009-now. In both the 1930s case and our most recent case, that led to a short-term debt cycle rebound, which eventually led to a tightening (in 1937 and over the last couple of years) for the reasons I previously described in explaining the short-term debt cycle. This time around, the tightening is coming via both interest rate increases and the Federal Reserve reducing its holdings of the debt it had acquired.Politics Politics is affected by economics and affects economics in classic ways. I won’t go into them all now, but I will touch on what I believe is most relevant for us to now consider. As previously mentioned, when interest rates hit 0%, central banks print money and buy financial assets, which causes these assets to rise. That benefits those who own financial assets (e.g., the wealthy) relative to those who don’t, which widens the wealth gap. Other factors such as technology and globalization (which remove the barriers between lower-cost and higher-cost populations) also contribute to the widening wealth gap within countries while narrowing the wealth gaps between counties. This causes the rise of populism and greater conflicts both within countries and between countries. Populism can be of the right or of the left. The conflicts can become harmful to the effective operations of government, the economy, and daily life (e.g., through strikes and demonstrations). This dynamic can become self-reinforcing because when populist conflicts undermine efficiency it can lead to more conflict and more extreme populism, which is more disruptive, and so on. Such times at their worst can threaten democracies and favor autocracies as most people believe that a strong leader is needed to get control of the chaos “to make the trains run on time.” For a more in-depth examination of this dynamic, see “Populism: The Phenomenon” (located here). Because populists are more confrontational and nationalistic by nature, and because domestic conditions are more stressful, the risks of confrontations between countries also rise during such periods. Over the past few years, we have seen this grow around the world. The emergence of populism in developed countries classically happens most forcefully late in long-term debt cycles when the short-term debt cycle turns down, which happened in the late 1930s and has a good chance of happening over the next couple of years, perhaps before the next US presidential election. The outcome of that election will have a big impact on just about everything.


九、被征收人在规定的签约期限内达不成补偿协议或被征收房屋所有权人不明确的,经法定程序,市政府按照本项目征收补偿方案规定作出补偿决定,并在房屋征收范围内予以公告。当地学生长期挨饿无法上学,部份学校更因学生不足而要关门。同时,当地渐出现公众卫生危机。ダンディver vol 2-目前,我国职业病以尘肺病、职业性化学中毒、职业性噪声聋、职业性放射性疾病等为主。随着新工艺、新技术、新材料的广泛应用,劳动者在职业活动中接触的职业病危害因素更加复杂多样,职业暴露人群日益扩大,职业病疾病谱也随之发生改变。





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One-piece flow minimizes non-value adding(不增值的) activities like movement or materials and allows the organization to establish who is being overworked and who is idle. It then becomes relatively easy to calculate(计算) how much value added work is being done and to find out the number of people necessary to hit the ideal production rate.在 塔里木河流域,胡杨树被世居于此的维吾尔族人称为“英雄树”,有胡武功:咋能没遗憾?摄影本身就是个遗憾的艺术。那些非常精彩的、转瞬即逝的瞬间,并不是在那等着你的。比如一个社火中的瞬间,不在场,永远拍不到。而在场了,但对象没发生,你也枉然。